SMMT Lifts 2026 Car Forecast to 2.09m — But Cuts EV Outlook
💡 Key Takeaway
The SMMT has upgraded its 2026 UK new car forecast to 2.09m while trimming its EV share outlook to 26.8%. What it means for finance buyers. # SMMT Lifts 2026 Car Forecast to 2.09m — But Trims the EV Outlook The UK new car market keeps surprising forecasters on the upside — but not in the way many expected. The **Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)** has nudged its full-year 2026 forecast **up**, while quietly pulling its electric-vehicle outlook **down**. 📊 For anyone weighing up a finance deal this summer, the gap between those two numbers is the story.
The headline figures
The SMMT now expects total new car registrations in 2026 to reach around 2.093 million — a roughly 3.6% rise on last year, and up from the 2.048 million it pencilled in back in January.
That's a market in genuine recovery, returning to a scale not seen consistently since before the pandemic.
But the battery-electric (BEV) forecast has gone the other way. The full-year EV share has been downgraded to 26.8%, from an earlier 28.5% — after a first half in which BEVs took just 21.6% of the market.
Why the EV number slipped
The short version: demand hasn't grown as fast as the regulations assumed it would.
Manufacturers are leaning hard on every lever to keep EVs moving — fleet channels, salary-sacrifice schemes, and heavy discounting. The SMMT has been candid that some of this activity is being driven by support that isn't sustainable long-term.
High energy, production and charging costs are still weighing on private buyers in particular. The appetite is there, but the economics haven't fully clicked into place for everyone yet.
What it means if you're financing a car
Here's the silver lining for buyers. When manufacturers are working this hard to shift EVs, the deals get sharper. 💷
That's showing up as:
- Manufacturer deposit contributions on electric models
- Subvented (subsidised) APRs that undercut standard rates
- More generous offers on stock that needs to move
If an EV already suits your driving, this is one of the more buyer-friendly windows we've seen. The flip side is depreciation — when discounting is heavy, used values can soften, so it pays to think about how long you plan to keep the car.
The petrol and hybrid picture
With the overall market up but EV share cooler than hoped, petrol and hybrid models are still doing a lot of the heavy lifting on registrations.
For finance buyers, that means strong choice and competitive deals across fuel types, not just electric. A hybrid can be a sensible middle ground for anyone who wants lower running costs without committing fully to charging infrastructure yet.
The takeaway
A bigger overall market is good news — more supply, more competition, and lenders keen to write business. The cooler EV forecast simply means the incentives on electric cars are likely to stay generous for a while.
Whichever way you lean, the smart move is to compare the total cost of a deal, not just the monthly figure. At We Finance Your Asset in Reading, Berkshire, we help drivers line up finance that fits the car and the budget — petrol, hybrid or electric. ✅